Free MLB Picks & Predictions - Today's Best Expert MLB Bets (2024)

The Blue Jays are into a friendlier portion of their schedule and need to string together victories with major ground to make up in the AL wildcard race. Toronto has responded well so far, holding opponents to three runs or fewer in six of the last nine contests. They’ve won three of their last four games and they’re worthy favorites here, especially with Detroit starterMatt Manningallowing nine or more hits in consecutive starts and posting a 4.88 ERA this season. Though the Toronto hitters are 9-for-46 overall against Manning, I’m buying into the visitors’ uptick in run production and Manoah’s impressive recent form. They simply can’t afford to keep taking two steps forward and one step back.

Show more

Tom Oldfield - Pick Made 4 hrs, 37 min ago.

Read full analysis

Lugo is enjoying a breakout season, pitching toa 1.79 ERA with a 0.98 WHIP through 10 starts.Lugo has fanned 8+ batters in four of his last five starts and the lone game where he went below that number came against a Brewers lineup that has the lowest chase rate in the majors. On the other hand, the Rays are just 27th in chase rate while ranking 24th in strikeout rate (24.4%).Not only am I betting the Over 5.5 on Lugo's punchouts in this spot but I'll ladder it up to 9 which pays out at +600.

Show more

Rohit Ponnaiya - Pick Made 5 hrs, 27 min ago.

Read full analysis

The Reds will be throwing pitcher Graham Ashcraft on the mound and hoping for the best in the opening game of the series. He’s had an up-and-down start to the year with a 4.25 ERA while allowing 51 hits and seven home runs across 48 2/3 innings. He also has one of the highest WHIPs in the league (1.418). Now he’ll have the impossible task of slowing down Mookie Betts, who is fifth in the MLB in batting average (.330), fourth in SLG (.540), and third in total bases (108). The seven-time All-Star also happens to hammer Ashcraft’s top pitch. The Reds righty uses his cutter 44.9% of the time, and Betts has had more success against cutters than any other pitch this season with a .538 average and .846 SLG.

Show more

Rob Paul - Pick Made 7 hrs, 26 min ago.

Read full analysis

Freeman is having an off year but he has been hitting the ball much better lately. The seven-time All-Star is slugging just .444 this season but he's bumped that number up to .500 over the last three weeks. Freeman is a proven slugger who was third in the majors in total bases (362) last year and he has still been raking against right-handers this year, slashing .331/.437/.551. He'll have the platoon advantage tonight against Graham Ashcraft. Ashcraft has a 4.25 ERA in nine starts and he sits in the bottom 12th percentile in hard hit rate and exit velocity. He has also been significantly worse at hitter-friendly Great American Ballpark and Freeman has gone 4-6 in his career against him.

Show more

Rohit Ponnaiya - Pick Made 5 hrs, 25 min ago.

Read full analysis

Show more

Rohit Ponnaiya - Pick Made 7 hrs, 16 min ago.

Read full analysis

Based on Corbin Burnes’ underlying metrics, regression is unlikely as he ranks in the 86th percentile in xERA and 78th percentile in xBA. Meanwhile, right-handerChris Flexentakes the mound for theChicago White Sox, and he is simply no match for the Orioles’ ace. This season, Burnes outranks Flexen in wins, ERA, WHIP, strikeouts, xERA, xBA, average exit velocity and barrel rate. Not only does Baltimore possess the stronger starting pitcher, but it also boasts the superior bullpen and lineup.

Show more

Tony Sartori - Pick Made 8 hrs, 8 min ago.

Read full analysis

Shota Imanaga may be an old rookie at 30 years of age, but he’s certainly been an impressive one nonetheless. The Japanese import has an MLB-record low 0.84 ERA through nine starts and is coming off back-to-back scoreless outings against the Pirates and Braves. He sets up for success again on Friday against a St. Louis Cardinals lineup that struggles to induce damage against southpaws, posting a 77 wRC+ (27th) and .272 wOBA (28th). The Chicago Cubs have been an Under team this year at 21-28 O/U. That gets exacerbated when Imanaga is on the bump — they’ve scored eight runs or fewer in all but one of his nine starts, and the lone exception was a nine-run performance against the L.A. Dodgers.

Show more

JD Yonke - Pick Made 6 hrs, 55 min ago.

Read full analysis

The Cardinals have been mashing lately but their lineup has struggled for most of the year and I don't see them having much success against the Cubs and phenom Shota Imanaga tonight.Imanaga has been incredible in his first year in the majors pitching to a 0.84 ERA with a 0.91 WHIP through nine starts. He has allowed fewer than 1.5 runs in seven of his nine starts, and didn't allow a single run in six of those outings. Despite their recent tear, the Cards are still just 23rd in the majors in OPS (.669) with that number plummeting to .605 against southpaws like Imanaga. They are also just 29th in the majors in barrel rate and 26th in hard hit rate which suggests their recent hot streak has been a fluke.

Show more

Rohit Ponnaiya - Pick Made 5 hrs, 20 min ago.

Read full analysis

This Diamondbacks lineup is lethal against lefties, batting an MLB-best .292. They'll face a struggling southpaw in the Marlins' Braxton Garrett, who's been tagged for 11 runs on 12 hits in just 9 2/3 innings. His opposite number is Zac Gallen, who is once again putting up Cy Young-caliber numbers, particularly at home, where his ERA is a scant 1.52. Miami's 28th-ranked offense by runs per game should struggle to keep this one close.

Show more

Robert Criscola - Pick Made 3 hrs, 11 min ago.

More MLB analysis

Yu Darvish has always had issues with allowing home runs, and his hard-hit rate has been on the rise for the past five seasons now, trending up from 34.2% all the way to 40.8% entering this outing. The combination of fly balls and hard contact is not one which breeds success, and with his strikeout rate nowhere near where it was in 2021, any issues on contact should be quite glaring. The New York Yankees have always been a team to target in these matchups given they’ve had one of the best home run to fly ball ratios in the game for the last few seasons. They’re slugging .459 against fly-ball pitchers in 2024, and with their league-leading 10.4% barrel rate and high 41.1% hard-hit rate, they should be well-equipped to inflict some damage upon Darvish.

Show more

Kenny Ducey - Pick Made 2 hrs, 13 min ago.

Read full analysis