Last Sunday afternoon, after the Dallas Wings fell to the lowly Washington Mystics for the second time in as many days, forward Natasha Howard implored fans to “keep believing.” F/C Monique Billings echoed the sentiment: “Stay with us,” she urged. While Wings fans are no doubt sympathetic to these words, it’s getting tough to see the light at the end of the tunnel.
The loss was Dallas’s 11th in a row. Dropping both games of this back-to-back set saw the Wings fall to dead last in the WNBA standings. It’s not where anyone thought they would be 16 games into the season. After making the semifinals last year, expectations were raised. There was hope to build on last year’s success. Optimism ran high.
But Satou Sabally, the WNBA’s reigning Most Improved Player, hurt her shoulder during the offseason. Natasha Howard broke her foot in the season opener. Rookie preseason standout Jaelyn Brown broke her nose, had surgery and contracted an illness in the aftermath. Maddy Siegrist broke her finger in the middle of a breakout season. And the Wings, already thin on depth and over-reliant on their best players, fell into a tailspin.
The injuries have been absolutely brutal. It’s undeniably the biggest factor in what’s gone wrong. But the foundation for this mess started in the offseason when Dallas refused to get better. Though salary cap constrictions compromised their flexibility, General Manager Greg Bibb showed no creativity to address the weaknesses within the team and take it to the next level.
While other teams made additions and maneuvered to improve, the Wings got worse. They shipped out last year’s point guard rotation, trading Crystal Dangerfield for nothing and cutting Veronica Burton. And while those players aren’t world-beaters, they’ve been replaced by overmatched rookies. In fact, nearly half the Wings’ roster is made up of rookies. That’s not the foundation of a contending team.
The only other offseason moves were re-signing Sabally to a one-year deal in restricted free agency (disappointing and scary that it wasn’t a long-term contract) and re-signing reserve center Kalani Brown to a three-year deal. Brown is a fine backup, but it seems odd to prioritize getting that done when you just spent a major asset last year to draft center Stephanie Soares fourth overall. No other significant moves were made besides bringing in training camp flyers Sevgi Uzun and Jaelyn Brown, who made the team.
So yes, injuries have hurt big time. Sabally is their best player and a top-10 player in the WNBA. The loss of her until August is massive, and her absence underscores just how much heavy lifting she did last year. But this roster was incredibly flawed from the jump.
The Wings are 11th out of 12 in defensive rating. They are ninth out of 12 in offensive rating. Both sides of the ball have been a disaster. On offense, they have little identity outside of hoping Arike Ogunbowale catches fire or forcing it inside to their bigs. They are the worst three-point shooting team in the WNBA, hitting just 29.6% of their long-range attempts. So many offensive possessions are played with horrible spacing, as Dallas’s roster construction often forces head coach Latricia Trammell to play two non-shooting bigs (sometimes three!) at the same time. It’s led to many sequences like these:
Watch any Wings game and you’ll see countless possessions like this: terrible spacing with the paint clogged up, no ball movement, and stagnation. Opposing teams know the Wings have no shooters. They know Dallas wants to score inside. So they load up in the paint and run doubles at Ogunbowale, forcing Dallas to scramble. So far, they’ve had no adjustment. The Wings are also dead last in the WNBA in turnovers at 17.3 per game. Their guards are inexperienced and limited playmakers. Combine that with the horrible spacing and it adds up to a lot of easy transition opportunities off giveaways for opposing teams.
As bad as the offense has been, the defense is even worse. Uzun, Ogunbowale, and Siegrist have been the main perimeter defenders for Dallas this year and none of them are good on defense. Uzun is small and easily gets blown by, Ogunbowale takes possessions off due to her massive offensive load and gets lost in space, and Siegrist is slow and better suited to guard the post. The bigger problem has been Dallas’s paint defense. Despite employing the twin towers of Teaira McCowan and Kalani Brown, Dallas is allowing 61.9% shooting in the restricted area, seventh out of 12 in the WNBA. In the paint (non-restricted area) Dallas is allowing 41.9% shooting, second-worst in the WNBA. For a team losing the math battle every night due to a lack of three-point shooting, this is untenable.
The Wings’ bigs cannot defend the pick and roll. Often, the concept of a ball screen seems completely foreign to them. When they're not playing drop coverage that easily gets picked apart, they're not doing anything. This is from just the last two games alone:
The Mystics relentlessly attacked Dallas’s bigs with screens in these two games. It got so bad that Trammell abandoned McCowan and Brown in the second game, playing either Billings or Howard at the five for a majority of the contest. And that actually worked until the offense dried up in the second half, as so much of Dallas’s identity lies within involving their bigs down low. Stef Dolson represents an extra difficult matchup for McCowan and Brown; she’s the best stretch big in the league. But the Wings’ bigs have struggled to guard in space all year. It’s a big reason why the defense is in the gutter.
So often, the defense looks confused and out of place. They seem unsure of their pick-and-roll coverages, they’re late on rotations, and they don’t know where they’re supposed to be. Though much of this can be chalked up to youth and inexperience, I find myself wondering what exactly the gameplan and scheme are supposed to look like. The parts on this roster don’t fit defensively, and it doesn’t seem like any adjustment to their woes is possible.
There are positives and silver linings to take away from this disaster. Before breaking her finger, Maddy Siegrist established herself as a leading candidate for Most Improved Player. She’s been a revelation, nearly quintupling her scoring average while pulling down boards and shooting over 50% from the field. Rookie first-round guard Jacy Sheldon is figuring things out after a slow start. She’s getting more playing time lately and averaging 9.2 points and 4.0 assists per 36 minutes while shooting 40% from three. Monique Billings has been a massive boost on a hardship contract. Though Sevgi Uzun is overtasked and miscast as a starting point guard, she looks like a solid backup in the W. Natasha Howard is back and has looked great in three games since returning from injury. Rookie first-rounder from the 2023 draft Lou Lopez Senechal is getting more time and gaining confidence on offense.
Arike Ogunbowale is second in the WNBA in scoring at 23.9 points per game. But her efficiency has been horrible. Her 48.8% true shooting is ghastly and her 4.8 assists to 3.5 turnover ratio is very bad for a guard with such insane usage. Not all of this is Ogunbowale’s fault, as the team has often had no other option than for her to play hero ball. That being said, the decision-making is often problematic and the shot selection even more so. And it’s been this way for most of her career. Ogunbowale is likely the best pure “bucket getter” in the league and she’s a great playmaker, too. But she is not elevating the Wings this year or setting her limited teammates up for success. Still, the scoring output can’t be ignored and she still has a ton of value around the league.
The season will likely be too far gone to save once Sabally returns after the Olympics. And maybe that’s for the best. Because the 2025 draft class is projected to be legendary. Dallas can position itself for a chance in the Paige Bueckers sweepstakes, though WNBA lottery rules make that a dicey proposition. The combined record of the last two seasons determines lottery odds, so Dallas will need to lose a lot more to out-tank some of their rivals. But even if they miss out on Bueckers, there are other players (Kiki Iriafien, Oliva Miles) that could be franchise changers.
Regardless of how it all plays out, Dallas will have a lot of soul-searching to do as the season progresses. There will be tough decisions that need to be made. Can they rebound from this bad start, finish strong, and get back on track? Or has this roster run its course? Will Sabally be re-signed? Should they clean house and start over? All of these questions will need answers by the time the 2024 season draws to a close. For now, the Wings have to hope things don’t get any worse than this.
